이번 20일, 넷플릭스는 이번 3분기 동안 220만 명의 신규가입자를 확보했다고 밝혔습니다. 이는 회사의 예상치였던 250만 명에 미치지 않는 숫자로, 발표 직후 주가가 6%나 떨어지기도 하였습니다. 이날 넷플릭스는 3분기 매출이 지난해 동기 대비 23% 증가한 약 64억 4천만 달러(약 7조3천억원)을, 순이익은 지난해 동기 대비 19% 증가해 약 7억 9천만 달러(약 8천900억원)을 기록했다고 밝혔습니다. 매출이 늘었지만 주당 순이익이 줄었고, 여기에 가입자 순증가자가 기대에 크게 못 미친 것인데요. 넷플릭스 오리지널 콘텐츠중 일부가 제작 취소되고 있어 이런 추세가 계속되면 넷플릭스의 독점 인기 콘텐츠로 인한 신규 가입자 유치효과가 떨어져 어려움을 겪을 것으로 예상됩니다.
Netflix stock should be avoided if lockdowns lift or a vaccine arrives, analyst says
Netflix shares should be avoided if there’s a coronavirus vaccine or if lockdowns lift, according to media analyst Alex DeGroote, who owns DeGroote Consulting.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Tuesday ahead of Netflix’s third-quarter results, DeGroote said: “I would have seen Netflix, frankly, as a stock to avoid, should there be, for example, a vaccine, or should lockdowns ease greatly.”
He added that the stricter lockdown initiatives being rolled out across Europe now “keeps people at home and that keeps them subscribing and less likely to churn.”
Competition in the streaming market has soared in recent months as other companies have launched their own offerings as part of an effort to capitalize on the pandemic. In addition to Amazon Prime, Apple TV, and YouTube Plus, there’s also new platforms like Disney+ and NBCUniversal’s Peacock service.
“The rule of thumb is the average household will take about three subscription services, but at the moment we have potentially up to eight services on offer,” said DeGroote. “There are just too many services for the budgets that most households have.”
DeGroote believes some streaming services may merge or get acquired next year, while others may shut down completely.
“I think probably into next year, things will start to get tough, and that’s when you might see M&A, or you might see some of the bigger operators, frankly pull their streaming services,” he said.
Netflix recently changed its discounting policy from a one-month free trial in the U.S. and the U.K. to a 50% discount for the first two months.
DeGroote, who does not own any Netflix shares, believes this was part of an effort to retain subscribers. “I would expect all the platform companies to be far more creative with their discounting over the next 12 to 18 months, as they try and strike a balance between critical mass, in terms of the subscriber base, and also frankly losing money,” he said.
“The reality is that for most streamers, these businesses are not yet profitable,” DeGroote added. “They won’t be profitable until they have subscriber bases of a certain size, paying a reliable monthly subscription. That’s probably a year down the line.”
Netflix shares have risen by more than 75% since March, which is when the coronavirus pandemic started to spread significantly in the West.
The company’s story has largely been about new subscriber growth but that may no longer be the case.
“In terms of Q3, the company has really quite skilfully guided down expectations,” said DeGroote. “The expectations over net new subs in Q3 are relatively low at about two and a half million so it is more about whether they can beat that number. For what it’s worth, I think they probably will.”
Patrick Armstrong, CIO of Plurimi Investment Managers, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Tuesday that technology companies “are going to be winners in this environment.”